Oil Price Surge: Geopolitical Risks Dominate Market
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a daily supply disruption of 20 million barrels (20% of global output), triple the initial supply gap during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Brent crude surged to $119/barrel on March9,and rosefurther to $116.43 on March 20 due to Houthi forces' intervention. As of March 30, Brent crude remains 50% higher than the pre-war level of $72($108.83/barrel). The closure has halted 90% of traffic, forcing tankers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope and driving freight costs up by 300%. Additionally, Iran's supply cutoff accounts for 55–60% of China's methanol imports.
Recent Updates
The price of choline chloride rose by 33% in March.
In March, the market for choline chloride saw a significant increase, with the monthly rise of products with 50% content exceeding 30%. In the short term, prices may consolidate at a high level, and the trend of raw materials will have a considerable impact. The market outlook for the medium and long term is positive. The company suggests paying attention to changes in raw materials and production capacity and arranging purchases rationally.
Sulfur Market Surges in March: Prices Hit Three-Year High Amid Supply Squeeze and Geopolitical Tensions
Sulfur prices in China have risen for four consecutive weeks since late February. By March 30, domestic solid/liquid sulfur averaged over ¥5,000/ton, with Zhenjiang Port transactions near ¥5,800–5,850/ton. Supply remains tight due to Middle East geopolitical risks (Hormuz Strait disruptions) and seasonal maintenance, reducing port inventories by 40% year-on-year. Demand is supported by pre-spring ploughing procurement and stable phosphate fertilizer needs, alongside growth in new energy sectors (e.g., lithium iron phosphate). Globally, Middle East offers approach 700/ton CFR,but Chinese buyers bidaround 600. Brazil's recent $700+/ton deal may boost sentiment, sustaining near-term price strength.
Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined as Volatility Narrows
International crude markets hovered near peak levels last week, with WTI and Brent benchmarks showing muted weekly fluctuations below 2%. While geopolitical tensions escalated in regions like the Middle East and Eastern Europe, counteracting factors limited price gains. These include: 1、The absence of widespread shutdowns in North American shale fields despite cold weather. 2、Supply restoration from Kazakhstan's Tengiz field. 3、OECD commercial inventories absorbing the geopolitical risk premium. WTI Crude: USD 60.1 per barrel (Near-term range forecast: USD 58-62) Brent Crude: USD 64.8 per barrel (Near-term range forecast: USD 63-67)